DTN Midday Grain Comments     08/11 10:54

   Corn, Soybean, Wheat Futures Higher at Midday

   Corn futures are 6 to 7 cents higher at midday Thursday; soybean futures are 
19 to 21 cents higher; wheat futures are 13 to 16 cents higher. 

David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

MARKET SUMMARY:

   Corn futures are 6 to 7 cents higher at midday Thursday; soybean futures are 
19 to 21 cents higher; wheat futures are 13 to 16 cents higher.  The U.S. stock 
market is higher with the DOW up 180 points. The U.S. Dollar Index is 15 points 
lower. Interest rate products are mixed. Energies are firmer with crude up 
1.00. Livestock trade is firmer. Precious metals are mixed with gold $10.00 
lower.

CORN:

   Corn futures are 6 to 7 cents higher at midday with trade continuing to see 
buying and firm spread trade as we work to balance weather and demand ahead of 
the Friday WASDE report with the short-term uptrend still intact. Short-term 
forecasts show drier weather for most in the near term with warmer-than-normal 
temperatures for the center and western parts of the Corn Belt with moderation 
expected the second week along with some better showers in the west. Weekly 
export sales remained soft at 191,800 metric tons (mt) of old crop and 191,300 
mt of new crop. Ethanol margins will continue to be limited by driving demand 
and seasonal slowdowns with unleaded futures bouncing off six-month lows to 
crimp blending margins if sustained into fall. Basis will be watched to see how 
much further strength fades, especially with the board rally and harvest starts 
in the South. On the WASDE report, yield is expected to come in at 175.9 
bushels per acre (bpa) with trade looking for demand cuts to balance the yield 
decrease, keeping carryout at 1.510 billion bushels (bb) for new crop. 
September chart support is the fresh low at $5.61 1/2 scored two weeks ago with 
the lower Bollinger Band just below that at $5.60, with trade holding back 
above the 20-day moving average at $6.01 and the upper Bollinger Band is the 
next round up at $6.32, which we are holding just below. 

SOYBEANS:

   Soybean futures are 19 to 21 cents higher at midday with trade working 
higher with flat to soft spread trade after we reversed off the highs Wednesday 
on improved forecast ideas with volatile back and forth trade likely to 
continue. Meal is $7.50 to $8.50 higher and oil is 150 to 160 points higher. On 
the WASDE report trade is looking for an average yield guess of 51.1 bpa, down 
just slightly from July with carryout at 226 million bushels (mb), remaining 
tight. Biodiesel margins remain positive but narrowing in recent days. South 
America is on post-harvest footing for shipping with their advantage to persist 
until September, while the bulk of the U.S. is heading into the start of 
pod-fill season with warmer and drier weather for much of the belt this week 
before moderating the next with mixed rain potential. Basis is fading a bit at 
processors and exporters in recent days as early harvest in the south draws 
closer. Mexico bought 104,300 mt of meal on the daily wire with weekly sales 
soft at -66,700 mt of old crop; 477,200 mt of new; products mixed on 90,900 mt 
of old-crop meal; and 311,200 mt of new meal; 600 of oil. On the September 
soybean chart support is the 20-day moving average at $14.21, which we are well 
above, with the upper Bollinger Band at $15.42, which we failed to hold above 
Wednesday.

WHEAT:

   Wheat futures are 13 to 16 cents higher at midday with trade working to hold 
above resistance after the strong close Wednesday and little fresh news. Plains 
weather looks warmer and drier this week with moisture needing to be built 
before planting time with the second week looking better, while spring wheat 
sees heat with harvest hitting full stride short term. The dollar is fading 
further from the recent highs as the pace of inflation showed easing Thursday 
morning along with Black Sea potential still being watched as ships continue to 
trickle out of Ukraine. Weekly export sales were rangebound at 359,220 mt. The 
KC September chart had resistance at the 20-day moving average at $8.59, which 
we closed solidly above with trade looking to see if action can consolidate, 
with the upper Bollinger band at $8.94 the next round up.

   David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com 

   Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala




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