DTN Midday Grain Comments 11/30 11:10
All Grains Lower at Midday
Corn is 1 to 3 cents lower, soybeans are 16 to 17 cents lower, and wheat is
10 to 16 cents lower.
David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market is weaker with the Dow down 440. The dollar index is 5
points higher. Interest rate products are weaker. Energies are weaker with
crude down $0.80. Livestock trade is mixed with hogs leading. Precious metals
are mixed with gold down $5.00.
Corn trade is 1 to 3 cents lower at midday with early gains fading after
trade tested contract highs in early action with weakness spilling over from
the soybean complex, and mostly flat spread action as the December contract
goes into delivery at the end of the session. Ethanol margins will likely start
the week under pressure, especially if driving demand concerns build with corn
weakness providing only slight relief. Basis remains generally strong. Export
inspections were in line with recent weeks at 890,033 metric tons. On the March
contract support is the 20-day at $4.23 with the lower Bollinger Band at $4.04
as the next level down with the fresh high scored at $4.39 1/2 scored overnight
with the upper Bollinger Band at $4.41 above that.
Soybean trade is 16 to 17 cents lower with the early attempt to gap higher
failing just short of the highs with selling building early morning while
spread action holds together with trade watching how much rain can come into
the South American forecast and the export wire remaining quiet. Meal is $3.00
to $4.00 lower and oil is 80 to 90 points lower. South America has rains moving
into much of central and southern Brazil and Argentina short term, with dry
pockets and high temps still a worry. Basis remains strong as we continue to
work to max out our logistics capacity to ship the needed export bushels with
freight issues remaining in play. Weekly export inspections remain strong at
2.046 million metric tons. The January chart has resistance at the fresh high
at the fresh high at 12.00 scored last week, with the upper Bollinger Band at
$12.21, with support the 20-day at $11.45.
Wheat trade is 10 to 16 cents lower at midday with the back and forth action
continuing as the December contract goes into delivery with the eastern Plains
set for some short-term moisture. The dollar remains at the lower end of the
range but has reversed off the lows. World export tenders continue to go to
Black Sea origin for the most part, with little change in overall conditions
there. The western plains look to mostly remain dry short term. Kansas City is
at 41 cent discount to Chicago on the March with active trade continuing, with
Minneapolis at -35. Weekly export inspections were improved at 502,788 metric
tons. Kansas City March chart resistance is the 20-day at $5.61 which we are
back below at midday, and support is the lower Bollinger Band at $5.51.
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne
and a registered adviser.
He can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
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